Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4578 · SAN → PHX
departs 4:12 PM PT · arrives 5:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 44%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.