Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4686 · MCO → PSE
departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 9:06 AM AT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 7%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PSE more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at PSE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PSE?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PSE that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PSE at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
PSE (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.