G4 2503 · PGD → SBN

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 6:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at PGD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SBN that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

SBN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4.2 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2503 · PGD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?