G4 2560 · PGD → ROC

departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 6:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ 5.0 in of rain forecast at ROC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

ROC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip2.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2560 · PGD → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?