G4 256 · AVL → SFB

departs 6:24 PM ET · arrives 8:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at AVL that day

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 256 · AVL → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?