Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 2817 · AUS → SFB
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 58%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 53% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
SFB (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.