Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 2881 · SDF → PGD
departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at PGD that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.