Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
G4 461 · PDX → DSM
departs 5:35 PM PT · arrives 10:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.