Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3431 · DFW → CLL
departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
75%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
75%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +29 pts in 24h
+29 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at CLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to CLL?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at CLL that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
CLL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.20 in
CLL (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.