Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3431 · DFW → CLL
departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 75%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CLL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at CLL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↓
CLL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
CLL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.