MQ 3436 · EYW → MIA

departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 12:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ EYW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.51 in

MIA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3436 · EYW → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?