MQ 3436 · MIA → EYW

departs 9:58 AM ET · arrives 10:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.08 in

EYW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip3.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3436 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?