MQ 3438 · EYW → MIA

departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ EYW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.66 in

MIA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3438 · EYW → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?