Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3514 · PHX → STS
departs 10:17 AM MT · arrives 12:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into STS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.