Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3514 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3514 · PHX → STS

departs 10:17 AM MT · arrives 12:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into STS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at STS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3514 · PHX → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?