Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3531 · DFW → ORD
departs 7:28 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±11 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.95 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.