Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3531 · DFW → ORD

departs 7:28 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3531 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?