Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3537 · DFW → FSM
departs 10:49 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 29%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±3 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
22%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
22%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into FSM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.44 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.