Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3537 · DFW → FSM
departs 10:49 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into FSM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.