Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3540 · ORD → CMH
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.