Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3583 · IAH → DFW
departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.