Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3583 · IAH → DFW
departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 50%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.