Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 3583 · IAH → DFW
departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 52%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.47 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.