Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
MQ 3583 · IAH → DFW
departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.