Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3585 · MIA → TLH
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 32%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.28 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.