Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3649 · LSE → ORD
departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave LSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at LSE that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
LSE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LSE (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.09 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.