Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3653 · DFW → MAF
departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.58 in
MAF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.