Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3678 · MEM → DFW
departs 5:19 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 56%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
14%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.