Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3678 · MEM → DFW
departs 5:19 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 66%
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.