Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3710
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3710 · DSM → DCA
departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 9:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 13%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DSM that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
DSM is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.64 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.