Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3726 · AUS → DFW
departs 3:44 PM CT · arrives 4:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
81%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
81%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
53%
Cancelled
51%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 81% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
81%
Yes 81%
No 19%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 73% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
51%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.