MQ 3730 · DCA → JAX

departs 9:04 PM ET · arrives 11:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3730 · DCA → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?