Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3743
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3743 · PNS → MIA
departs 7:18 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.