Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3790 · ORD → ATW
departs 11:00 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+27 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
11pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
ATW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
ATW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.