MQ 3799 · MIA → ORF

departs 2:23 PM ET · arrives 4:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

ORF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3799 · MIA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?