Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3811 · ILM → ORD
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±11 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.