Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3811SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
MQ 3811 · ILM → ORD
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 137h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%chance · ±14 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.