Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3830 · DFW → TUL
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.