MQ 3846 · MIA → CVG

departs 8:53 AM ET · arrives 11:44 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

CVG (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3846 · MIA → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?