Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
MQ 3848 · ORD → XNA
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
1.0 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
11am departures from ORD are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into XNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.