Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3878 · SAT → DFW
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 7.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.