MQ 3895 · ORD → CAK

departs 4:35 PM CT · arrives 7:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CAK more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CAK?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ CAK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.75 in

CAK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3895 · ORD → CAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to CAK?