Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 3895 · ORD → ELP
departs 9:19 PM CT · arrives 11:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.