Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3906 · SAT → PHX
departs 8:41 AM CT · arrives 9:16 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
8am departures from SAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.06 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.