Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3906 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 3906 · SAT → PHX

departs 8:41 AM CT · arrives 9:16 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ 8am departures from SAT are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.65 in

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3906 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?