MQ 3909 · BHM → MIA

departs 3:38 PM CT · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3909 · BHM → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?