Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3938
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3938 · DFW → MLI
departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 23%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
24%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MLI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to MLI?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MLI that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
MLI usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.07 in
MLI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.