Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
MQ 3956 · MHK → DFW
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at MHK that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MHK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 3.13 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 4.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.