Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3961
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3961 · CMH → ORD
departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 2:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 65% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.