MQ 3963 · ORD → AVL

departs 8:04 AM CT · arrives 10:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

AVL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3963 · ORD → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?